Saturday, January 24, 2009

Finding Humor in Economic Distress

During the great depression, I’m told Hollywood produced happy movies and musicals.  The purpose was to provide temporary relief from grimness.

Judging from today’s mix of heavy drama and high action, Hollywood’s current movies must have been conceived and financed when the market was in the highest period of optimism. Shortly, we might expect some lighter fare musicals and comedy to lighten our current grief. 

In the meanwhile, economic jokes are spreading wild.  

Example: 

Man walks into bar and says to his male friends:  “This market turn down is worse than a divorce.”  “How come?” his buddies ask.  “Well, I’ve only got half of my money…and I still have my wife.”




….


A man calls his bank to ask about the overdraft notice he received in the morning mail.  This was his question: 

Does this mean I over-drafted my account at your bank, or that your bank over-drafted other banks or the government?

….

An 80 year-old man wrote this to his close friend:

It used to be that the second thing I looked at in the paper was the obituary column and I was always elated if none of my friends were LISTED.   Now the second thing I look at is the financial page and I’m equally elated if none of my stocks were DELISTED.

….

It use to be a claim that most of the contemporary jokes came from either jail prisoners or people who worked for brokerage firms.  The way things look now there could be a lot of crossovers.  Here’s hoping Hollywood can find a higher class of humor for its light escapist movies we can expect in the immediate future.  

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

WHEN WILL THE ECONOMY TURN UP?


Here is an intriguing prediction about when the economy will stabilize and rise again. 

 

It doesn’t come from an Ivy League p.h.d trained to read the economic signs.   Nor does it come from a government economist skilled in reading  statistics.

 

Instead, it comes from a very successful businessman who faces potential buyers and concerned employees all day long most every business day.  This is his prediction and his reasons why: 


THE PREDICTION


The economy will start to turn up once homeowners are convinced that the value of their houses have declined as far as they will likely to go.  Simple as that! 

 

Here are the businessman’s reasons:  The largest single asset most people have is their home.  Two or three years ago it was valued at,  say, $400,000 in the homeowners mind. When he added that together with his 401k’s, his savings and social security, he figured he could downsize and retire comfortably.

 

But now, he has seen similar houses in the neighborhood listed for $349,000 and not selling.   Then he sees the prices cut to $319,000 or $298,000 and still not selling.  The homeowner wonders where the bottom is, especially since he knows of more homes likely to come on the market in the next block and he knows of several people in the area who have real financial problems keeping up their home mortgages and home equity loans.

 

So-----he and his wife have cut back on their expenditures.  They are trying to save a little, by not buying the refrigerator they wanted, the new suit or taking the vacation they had planned. 

 

This businessman’s theory is that once the homeowner realizes his home price has reached the bottom and has stabilized, he will become more secure in his thinking .  He then will begin making his spending and retirement plans based on the reduced “expected” price that his house will bring when he does want to sell it.  Once he has that secure feeling, he will then reconsider spending for the refrigerator, the suit or the vacation. Meanwhile, if he hasn’t become unemployed, he will pay down credit cards and may be able to increase his savings. 

 

 Where will he invest his savings?  Who knows? 

 

How safe is this homeowner’s job?  This same businessman who has his “boots on the sales floor” has an insightful look at what is really causing a lot of the unemployment, and what will bring unemployment to a realistic fix-- not based solely on bailout monies.


The result eventually could be more business efficiency and greater business expenditures and growth.

But ---that is a subject for a separate blog.